The definitional layer of GII-US: scorecard dimensions, the Decision Impact Record contract, decision-origin codes, and lifecycle states. Field-level JSON Schema ships with the pilot; the definitions below are normative now.
Scorecard dimensions#
| Symbol | Dimension | Scale | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| GII-M | Impact magnitude | 0–100 | Attributable reach and severity of a decision's consequences, independent of benefit or burden direction. The primary headline. A large burden and a large benefit can both be high-impact decisions. |
| GII-D | Directional balance | −100 to +100 | Balance of measured benefits and burdens under preregistered orientation rules, computed over the oriented-indicator set O. Not ideology, approval, or partisanship. |
| GII-C | Attribution confidence | 0–100 | Weighted sum of five sub-scores: strength of causal identification, data quality, implementation fidelity, robustness, and transparency. The five weights sum to 1, so confidence is bounded by its lowest and highest sub-score. |
| GII-K | Distributional concentration | 0–100 | Total variation distance between impact shares and the reference population, on fractional shares: K = 50 × Σ|p − q|. Concentration, not a justice verdict. |
| GII-V | Coverage | 0–100% | Share of preregistered applicable outcome weight supported by usable evidence. Headline observed scores are withheld below a provisional coverage threshold. |
| GII-S | Evidence maturity | categorical | Watch, forecast, nowcast, provisional observed, mature observed, revised, or withdrawn. Forecast and observed values are never averaged together. |
Stable identifier#
GII-US-[YEAR]-[ORIGIN]-[TYPE]-[SERIAL]-[VERSION] e.g. GII-US-2027-EXE-AGY-RULE-0042-v1 (illustrative only)
A materially revised analytic record increments its version while retaining root event identity; distinct implementing events receive distinct identifiers linked to the same lineage, so they are different events rather than versions of one. External source identifiers (including PEPI-native IDs) are preserved verbatim in the adapter layer only and are never surfaced in GII records.
The shape is enforced, not merely published. A record whose identifier is malformed — or whose embedded origin or instrument type disagrees with the record’s own — fails the quality controls and is not scored. Note that an origin code itself contains a hyphen, so an identifier cannot be split on hyphens and read positionally: EXE-AGY-RULE read that way gives origin EXE and type AGY, which looks entirely plausible and is wrong.
Decision origins#
| Code | Origin | Aggregation |
|---|---|---|
| LEG-CONG | Congress | Legislative subindex |
| EXE-PRES | President and Executive Office | Presidential-action subindex |
| EXE-AGY | Executive departments and agencies | Executive-agency subindex |
| IND-REG | Independent regulators | Independent-regulatory subindex |
| JUD-SCOTUS | Supreme Court | Standalone view, counted once within Judiciary |
| JUD-COA | Courts of appeals | Appellate subindex |
| JUD-DIST | District and specialty courts | Lower-court subindex |
| FED-MON | Federal Reserve System | Monetary/central-bank subindex |
| INTG-IMPL | Intergovernmental implementation actor | Implementation event; not an originating decision |
Instrument types#
A closed enumeration, and the second column is a rule rather than a description. Watch-stage instruments receive no observed-impact score — they may be stored and tracked, and the headline is barred categorically, whatever else the record satisfies. An instrument kind that is not on this list is treated the same way: a kind nobody has classified is a kind nobody has decided about.
| Code | Instrument | Observed score |
|---|---|---|
| STATUTE | Statute or statutory provision | eligible |
| APPROP | Appropriation | eligible |
| TAX | Tax change | eligible |
| RULE | Final rule or rescission | eligible |
| PRESACT | Presidential action | eligible |
| GUIDANCE | Material administrative guidance | eligible |
| WAIVER | Waiver | eligible |
| GRANT | Grant | eligible |
| PROCURE | Procurement decision | eligible |
| ENFORCE | Enforcement shift | eligible |
| ADMORDER | Administrative order or adjudication | eligible |
| OPINION | Federal judicial holding or order | eligible |
| TRADE | Trade measure | eligible |
| SANCTION | Sanction | eligible |
| EXPCTRL | Export control | eligible |
| TARIFF | Tariff | eligible |
| MONETARY | Federal Reserve decision | eligible |
| BILL | Introduced bill | barred |
| PROPRULE | Proposed rule | barred |
| LITIG | Pending litigation | barred |
| PROMISE | Political promise | barred |
| SPEECH | Speech or remarks | barred |
| SPECULATION | Press speculation | barred |
| ANNOUNCE | Unenforced announcement | barred |
The five clocks#
Government impact does not run on one date. Each clock must fall on or after the one before it, and a record whose outcome is measured before the decision that caused it is refused rather than reported — that ordering describes an impossibility, and an impossibility in a dataset is nearly always a data error. The one permitted reversal is anticipation: affected parties really do act on an announced change before it takes effect, and a record claiming it must name anticipation as a threat in its causal statement.
National series attribution runs on the exposure clock, not the publication date. A decision with a long implementation lag does not begin contributing on the day it issued; it begins when someone felt it.
| Clock | Question |
|---|---|
| decision | When did the institution act? |
| legal | When did authority or obligations change? |
| implementation | When did systems, funding, enforcement, or processes change? |
| exposure | When did affected groups experience the change? |
| measurement | When did outcomes become observable and data get released? |
| revision | What has been corrected, revised, amended, or judicially revisited since — a list, because corrections happen more than once. |
The required causal statement#
Every observed-impact record states these before data analysis, and an observed headline is withheld without them. They are separate fields rather than one prose block on purpose: nobody can say which of the eight a paragraph omitted, and everybody assumes it covered them.
| Element | Required |
|---|---|
| treatedUnit | The treated unit, group, jurisdiction, market, or time period. |
| treatment | The operative treatment and exposure definition. |
| outcome | The outcome and measurement period. |
| counterfactualQuestion | The counterfactual question. |
| mechanism | The expected mechanism and lag. |
| concurrent | Concurrent decisions and external shocks. |
| threats | Spillovers, anticipation, attrition, substitution, and interference risks. |
| refutation | The conditions under which the attribution would be weakened or rejected. |
| estimand | The core estimand, in plain language as well as technical notation. |
The last of these — the conditions under which the attribution would be weakened or rejected — is the one most likely to be skipped, because it is the only one that asks the author to describe how they might be wrong. It is required, and its absence withholds the headline.
Decision Impact Record — field groups#
| Group | Required contents |
|---|---|
| Identity | GII ID, authoritative title, public short title, decision origin, institution, instrument type |
| Authority | Statutory or constitutional authority, citations, originating and implementing actors |
| Status | Proposed/watch, final, effective, implemented, stayed, vacated, superseded, expired, withdrawn |
| Dates | Decision, publication, legal effect, implementation, exposure start/end, observation cutoff |
| Scope | Geography, jurisdiction, population, entity class, exclusions, legal reach |
| Lineage | Parent, child, implements, modifies, litigates, stays, supersedes, depends on, overlaps with |
| Theory of change | Mechanism, assumptions, mediators, expected timing, spillovers, failure conditions |
| Outcomes | Domain, measure, unit, population, orientation rule, source, data vintage, time horizon |
| Estimation | Counterfactual, design, sample, model, treatment definition, estimate, uncertainty, diagnostics |
| Scorecard | Magnitude, direction, confidence, concentration, coverage, maturity, withhold flags |
| Distribution | Benefit and burden groups, shares, incidence, denominator, privacy and suppression rules |
| Provenance | Retrieval URI, publisher, license, checksum, schema, transformation, code/model version |
| Review | Legal, methods, data, domain, editorial reviewers; conflicts; decisions; timestamps |
| Publication | Release, revision, correction, deprecation, citation, API and download location |
Lifecycle and maturity states#
| State | Meaning and headline use |
|---|---|
| Watch | Discussed, introduced, proposed, or pending without operative exposure. No observed score. |
| Forecast | Prospective estimate with documented assumptions. Forecast product only. |
| Nowcast | Early estimate on partial or high-frequency evidence. Clearly labeled; not mature. |
| Provisional observed | Operative exposure with initial observed outcomes. Eligible with caveats. |
| Mature observed | Sufficient outcome horizon and stable evidence. Eligible. |
| Revised | Source data, model, scope, or legal status changed. New version; prior retained. |
| Withdrawn/deprecated | Analytic record invalidated or replaced. Not current; explanation retained. |