Preregistered outcome layer–5.3,

Outcome codebook

The preregistered layer the scorecard reads: outcome families across the six impact domains, their orientation rules, magnitude anchors, and controlled missingness states — all fixed before any result is examined.

38Outcome families
6Impact domains
5Orientation rules
22/38Signed by ruleThe rest are ambiguous, magnitude-only, or target-band — never naive up-is-good.

Coverage is the supported share of a preregistered applicable outcome map — not the share of whatever data happened to be found. Outcome families, units, and orientation rules are defined before results are examined. This codebook is that layer: the scorecard reads its orientation rules for GII-D and its families for GII-V coverage.

Implemented in @gii/codebook · 38 seed families across six domains · rendered live from the library.

Orientation is registered, not assigned ad hoc. A measure’s movement maps to a benefit or burden only through its preregistered rule. Context-sensitive measures — inflation, interest rates, deficits, imports, exports, trade balances, market concentration, enforcement volume, service utilization — are ambiguous or target_band, never naive up-is-good.

Orientation rules#

PolarityMeaning
positive_is_benefitAn increase in the measure is a preregistered benefit; oᵢ resolves to +1 when the effect increases it, −1 when it decreases it.
positive_is_burdenAn increase is a preregistered burden; signs reversed.
ambiguousGenuinely non-oriented: oᵢ = 0, and the indicator stays in the oriented set O under a validated ambiguity rule.
magnitude_onlyNo orientation rule: oᵢ = null, excluded from O (counts toward magnitude only).
target_bandBeneficial within a band; oᵢ is graded in [−1, 1] by movement toward or away from the band.
orientation

How families resolve direction

Only families with a signed rule can push GII-D. Ambiguous families stay in the oriented set at zero; magnitude-only families leave it entirely.

  • ambiguous (o = 0)1334%
  • benefit ↑1232%
  • burden ↑1026%
  • target band25%
  • magnitude only (o = null)13%

38 families in total · The rules

coverage

Families per impact domain

A domain with no family is a domain the index cannot yet describe, so the flat profile here is the design target, not an accident.

People & households10
U.S. economy8
Public entities4
Nonprofits & civil society4
International trade5
Private enterprise7

38 families in total · Browse the codebook

Outcome families#

People & households

FamilyMeasure · unitOrientationSources
household_incomeReal household income
USD (constant)
benefit ↑Census Bureau APIs, BLS, IRS Statistics of Income
employmentEmployment rate
percent
benefit ↑BLS
consumer_pricesConsumer price inflation
percent YoY
target band
band withheld
BLS
health_coverageInsurance coverage rate
percent
benefit ↑CMS data, Census Bureau APIs
administrative_burdenTime and paperwork burden
hours per person
burden ↑Agency administrative systems
service_utilizationProgram/service utilization
count or rate
ambiguous (o = 0)Agency administrative systems, CMS data
povertyPoverty rate (official and supplemental)
percent
burden ↑Census Bureau APIs
housing_cost_burdenShare of households paying >30% of income for housing
percent
burden ↑HUD USER API, Census Bureau APIs
energy_costsResidential energy prices and expenditures
USD or index
burden ↑EIA API, BLS
ui_claimsUnemployment-insurance initial claims
count
burden ↑DOL API, BLS API

U.S. economy

FamilyMeasure · unitOrientationSources
real_outputReal GDP
USD (chained)
benefit ↑BEA API
inflationInflation rate
percent YoY
target band
band withheld
BLS API, Federal Reserve data
policy_ratePolicy interest rate
percent
ambiguous (o = 0)Federal Reserve data
public_deficitFederal deficit
USD or percent of GDP
ambiguous (o = 0)Treasury Fiscal Data, CBO
employmentNonfarm employment
jobs
benefit ↑BLS API
labor_force_participationLabor-force participation rate
percent
benefit ↑BLS API, FRED API
business_investmentReal private nonresidential fixed investment
USD (chained)
benefit ↑BEA API, FRED API
energy_pricesWholesale and retail energy prices
USD or index
ambiguous (o = 0)EIA API

Public entities

FamilyMeasure · unitOrientationSources
federal_awardsFederal awards received
USD
ambiguous (o = 0)USAspending API, Agency grants data
administrative_costImplementation and administrative cost
USD
burden ↑Treasury, Census of Governments
service_capacityStaffing and service capacity
FTE or capacity index
benefit ↑Census of Governments, OpenFEMA
disaster_assistanceFederal disaster assistance obligations
USD
ambiguous (o = 0)OpenFEMA API, USAspending API

Nonprofits & civil society

FamilyMeasure · unitOrientationSources
grant_revenueGrant and contract revenue
USD
benefit ↑IRS Form 990 data, USAspending
service_demandDemand for services
count
ambiguous (o = 0)IRS Form 990 data, Agency grant systems
compliance_burdenCompliance and reporting burden
hours or USD
burden ↑Agency grant systems
employmentNonprofit-sector employment
jobs
benefit ↑BLS establishment data, IRS Form 990 data

International trade

FamilyMeasure · unitOrientationSources
importsImport value
USD
ambiguous (o = 0)Census international trade data, USITC DataWeb
exportsExport value
USD
ambiguous (o = 0)Census international trade data, BEA international accounts
tariff_incidenceTariff incidence / customs cost borne
USD
burden ↑USITC DataWeb, Agency trade records
trade_balanceTrade balance
USD
ambiguous (o = 0)Census international trade data, BEA international accounts
import_pricesImport price index
index
burden ↑BLS API, USITC DataWeb

Private enterprise

FamilyMeasure · unitOrientationSources
firm_revenueFirm revenue
USD
benefit ↑Census business data, SEC EDGAR APIs
compliance_costRegulatory compliance cost
USD or hours
burden ↑Regulators, SBA, Census business data
market_concentrationMarket concentration (HHI)
HHI
ambiguous (o = 0)Census business data, SEC EDGAR APIs
firm_dynamicsEstablishment entry and exit
count
ambiguous (o = 0)Census business data, BLS establishment data
enforcement_volumeEnforcement actions
count
ambiguous (o = 0)Regulators
business_applicationsNew business applications
count
benefit ↑Census business data
market_responseBundled entry, exit, investment, and vendor-demand response
count or USD
magnitude only (o = null)Census business data, SEC EDGAR APIs

Magnitude anchors#

Each indicator’s severity, reach, persistence, and spillover is scored 0–100 against published anchors. Three of the four scales are quantified: each anchor carries a numeric band edge in a declared metric, so an estimate can be anchored deterministically by interpolation rather than by adjective. Spillover deliberately is not — propagation has no natural continuous metric, and quantifying it would be false precision. That one component stays structured judgment, which is exactly what the calibration run measures the reliability of.

The anchor scales themselves are not published. They are the conversion from a measured quantity into a score — the preregistered judgment that makes this an index rather than a collection of statistics — and publishing them alongside the family list would amount to publishing the instrument. What is published is the property that matters to a reader: the same measured input produces the same score every time, and the reliability of the judgment components is measured and reported rather than asserted.

Controlled missingness#

A blank value, a real zero, and the four analytic null-reasons are different states. A required field may be null only with a controlled reason, and missing weight is never silently redistributed.

StateMeaningValid null reason?
valueA real observed value, including a genuine measured zero. Not missing.no
zeroA measured value that happens to be zero — distinct from absent. Not a missingness reason.no
not_applicableThe measure does not apply to this event, population, or domain.yes
legally_unavailableData exists but cannot be used under law, license, or privacy rules.yes
not_yet_observedExposure has not produced observable outcomes for this horizon yet.yes
not_estimableNo credible counterfactual or method can currently estimate the effect.yes